Photo: Maxim Shemetov / Reuters
The experts of the Analytical credit rating Agency (ACRA) came to the conclusion that the sanctions the US and the EU had only an indirect impact on the Russian economy. The main deterrent of the Russian authorities ‘ economic policy, RBC.
In particular, the position of Russian business in a greater impact than sanctions and the implementation of tax maneuver in the oil industry, analysts say. Thus, the profitability of non-financial sector decreased by 1.6 percentage points two years after the imposition of sanctions. As for the banking sector, here the reduction of profitability by 0.8 percentage points has affected all banks, not just placed under sanctions.
According to ACRA, one of the clear examples of the indirect impact of sanctions on the situation in the Russian economy serve responses in the form of restriction of import of certain categories of food. “The effect on real incomes, we estimate minus 2-3 percentage points in 2018. In 2014-2018, Russia’s GDP grew by 3 percent, while the contribution factor of the contracti was only minus 0.2 percentage points”, — analysts write.
A change in economic policy by the Russian authorities after the imposition of sanctions also resulted in more conservative budget planning and distrust of the authorities on external borrowing. The potential economic growth of 1.5 percent in annual terms is limited for the most part by labour shortages.
The impact of sanctions, estimated ACRES, also affect, but in the longer term. “The main barriers for faster growth, which would be possible in the absence of the sanctions regime — is the abolition of joint technological projects, the decline in exports of aluminium and production of oil and gas”, — experts say.
The EU, USA and several other countries have introduced restrictive measures against Russia in 2014 and linking them with the annexation of Crimea, and then — with the conflict in the South-East of Ukraine. In response, Moscow imposed a ban on food imports from most of the countries that supported anti-Russian sanctions.
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