Photo: Anatoly Zhdanov / Kommersant
Raising the retirement age will not lead to strong GDP growth and at best will give a result of zero, but a negative impact on the incomes, estimated by analysts at Raiffeisenbank.
In their study, economists have identified two scenarios: optimistic and pessimistic. In the first case, continuing to work the Russians will get an average salary 31-32 thousand roubles, and pensioners will be able to count on the annual indexation of pensions (which in reality refused, the government). However, their real income will remain stable or even grow (by 0.3 percent), but this applies only to those who can find work. The rest will have to face a falling standard of living.
The effect on GDP during the implementation of the positive scenario will be close to zero, again, due to the fact that many people who under current regulations would be eligible to retire, will remain without work. Without reform, growth could reach two percent by 2034, according to the study authors.
The pessimistic scenario assumes a salary of 20 thousand rubles for men and 14 thousand women for those who continue to work after the onset of the current retirement age. In this case, by 2034 GDP will decline by 1.9 percent due to falling demand. Revenues for the same period will fall by three percent (no reform could rise to 3.1 per cent). Moreover, the decline in wages will affect and increased competition in the labour market.
Without reform, both figures could grow significantly. The positive effect of the reform on public Finance analysts does not put into question. It can be achieved through a guaranteed reduction in the number of pensioners who would be eligible for payments from the budget.
Earlier, on 11 July it became known that deputies of the state Duma considering the possibility of lowering the retirement age for women from 63 to 60 years to 2034. Such amendments may be made in the bill for the second reading.
July 10, Minister of labor and social development Maxim Topilin said that the pension reform was to support the authorities of the majority of Russian regions.
About raising the retirement age to 20134 year to 65 years for men and 63 women 14 June told Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.
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