Photo: Eugene Novozenina / RIA Novosti
Successful execution of the may decree of President Vladimir Putin will not help to dramatically accelerate economic growth, obstacle to which will be the Western sanctions and the VAT increase. This writes the development Center of the Higher school of Economics (HSE), the results of its survey of economists, excerpts of which leads the family-owned Demyan Kudryavtsev, the newspaper “Vedomosti”.
HSE surveyed experts indicate that the sanctions already imposed and the upcoming only — make it impossible to plan more than one year. In this regard, they doubt ability of the Russian economy to reach growth rates above three percent, starting in 2021, which previously said the Ministry of economic development. If external constraints will increase, the Central Bank will have to abandon the reduction of the key rate, and this will increase the cost of borrowing for businesses. As a result, the growth, if you will, is discreet.
Another obstacle to rapid growth will be the VAT increase, economists say. He will fall the purchasing power of the population and, consequently, demand. This factor may be offset by rising oil prices. Finally, growth will prevent congestion in the financing of social obligations and defense spending, science and space. Because less money will go directly to the economy.
The experts touched on the recent proposals of the presidential aide Andrei Belousov about the withdrawal of the windfall profits from the steel, chemical and petrochemical companies. Another threat — currency crisis in Turkey broke out on the background of the crisis in relations with the United States.
At the same time, economists say, the forecasts can be improved after the publication of specific national projects and programmes of the government. After this it will be clear what and how much authorities are going to spend the budget.
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