Photo: Nina zotina/ RIA Novosti
The GDP growth in Russia in the next three years will not exceed 1.6-1.9 percent. This forecast was made by experts of the Center for development HSE, RBC.
Experts have suggested that GDP growth may slightly accelerate in 2021. Among the negative factors affecting the development of the economy, experts mentioned decline in oil prices, increase in VAT rates and slowing export growth. “The overall slowdown in the exports of non-fuel goods and services to 2.5-3.5 per cent will have a negative impact on the Russian economy in the years 2019-2021,” said the experts.
The most difficult 2019: GDP growth will slow to 1.3 percent. According to the forecasts of the HSE, the Urals crude will fall from 71 per barrel in 2018, to 63 dollars by 2021.
According to the macro analyst of Raiffeisenbank Stanislav Murashov, the slowdown in economic growth will also be linked to pension reform. “Economic activity after retirement drops sharply. People can’t find work or can’t find the strength to work. In that suddenly increase the employment of people placed under deferral, it is hard to believe. Many will be forced to move under the wing of their children. Either way, the income will be severely reduced,” he said.
The increase of VAT from 18% to 20% will occur from 1 January 2019. It is assumed that this will not affect socially important goods, utilities and public transport.
Video, photo All from Russia.