Photo: Jason Lee / Reuters
Economists Goldman Sachs Group, Nomura Holdings and JPMorgan Chase & Co have revised their forecasts for the trade war, the United States and China, reports Bloomberg.
After threats of U.S. President Donald trump to impose duties equal to 25 per cent in another series of goods from China in the amount of $ 300 billion optimistic economic experts gave way to pessimism about future prospects to reach a trade deal between the two largest economies in the world.
Now experts estimate the probability of raising taxes to end the year at 65 percent and it is expected that it will happen in the third quarter of 2019.
Economists at Nomura note that for the last two weeks the US and China changed course under which there has been progress in achieving, though limited, agreement. Experts believe that the country will not be able to return to the relationship that was at the end of April.
The conflict between the USA and China also spread to the field of technology. For example, shares of companies that specialize in voice recognition Iflytek fell after news that it is on the list of Chinese companies that may face U.S. restrictions. Company Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Zhejiang Dahua Technology involved in video surveillance, has also suffered after being hit in the list.
Goldman Sachs economists fear that if in the coming weeks won’t happen a positive change in the relations of the two countries, the introduction of new tariffs could be their main strategy. Although the experts of the investment Bank still believe the agreement is more likely.
Fees can have a negative impact on the index of personal consumer expenditure (PCE), which is the base price index. According to estimates, an increase of 0.6 percentage points in addition to those already incident to an increase of 0.2 percentage points. In the end, the confrontation between the US and China may lead to US decline in GDP of 0.5 percent, and China — the fall of the gross domestic product of 0.8 percent over three years.
Specialists at JPMorgan expect that until 2020, imposed duties will be saved. Furthermore, the introduction of a 25 percent tariff on the remaining products on the $ 300 billion that China imports in the second half of 2019, will lead to the fall of the yuan on seven currency units per dollar.
Video, photo All from Russia.