Photo: Anatoly Zhdanov / Kommersant
In November, the Russian rouble from the point of view of investors is the most stable since the start of the crisis in 2014. This is evidenced by the implied volatility of the ruble, that is on the market to assess the potential fluctuations in the next three months, reports owned by Grigory Berezkin the RBC.
As pointed out by the chief economist of Nordea Bank Tatyana Evdokimova, as of 18 November, that number dropped to 8.4 percent. For comparison, in December 2014 — January 2015 the implied volatility was at the level of 56-57 percent.
Despite this the stability of the ruble remains a relative. The Russian currency remains in the top ten most volatile among the currencies of developing countries. The worst situation is with the South African Rand, Brazilian real and Chilean peso, where the implied volatility exceeds ten percent.
According to Evdokimova, significantly lower volatility of the ruble was in 2008, but then the policy of the Central Bank different from the present. Since the end of 2014, the Central Bank abandoned the exchange interval, so that the ruble exchange rate is formed to market properly. She noted that to date, the ruble is unlikely to expect more stability, and any external problem, for example, the failure of the transaction between China and the U.S., could destabilize the situation.
Earlier in November, the state Duma has proposed legislation to limit the volatility of the ruble through the return of the exchange rate band and the introduction of restrictions on the movement of speculative capital. However, the head of the Duma Committee on financial market Anatoly Aksakov promised that this idea will not get support.
Video, photo All from Russia.