Photo: Oleg Karsaev / “Kommersant”
The ruble against the major currencies will drop slightly by the end of this year, writes owned by Grigory Berezkin RBC, citing economists and analysts.
The interviewed experts believe that before the New year the ruble exchange rate will drop to 64 and 65 rubles to the dollar. At the time of publication of quotations on the Moscow exchange amounted to 63.6 ruble per dollar.
The current expectations of analysts and investors regarding the future of the ruble exchange rate are the lowest for the last five years — from December 2014, when there was large-scale collapse of the Russian currency amid a sharp decline in world oil prices.
One of the main reasons for the possible weakening of the ruble, economists believe the ongoing trade war between the US and China. The parties have not yet come to the promised first phase of the agreement, some experts believe a deal is impossible after the US passed a bill to support democracy in Hong Kong, but the official representatives from Washington and Beijing say that they continue to work in the same direction and negotiate.
If agreement still cannot be reached, the United States with high probability will introduce the previously promised additional duties on Chinese goods, forcing international investors to shift to more secure assets, while avoiding emerging markets, including Russian. In this case Russian assets waiting for sale, and vacant rubles will be sold for dollars and other reserve currencies.
As reason is the possible slowing down of the decline in the base rate of the Federal reserve system (FRS). In this case, the gap between rates on dollar and rouble, the market will shrink, and the dollar will become more attractive for foreign investors, and in rubles — at least that will reduce the demand on the Russian currency.
Finally, before the New year Russians have traditionally been the increased demand for foreign currency in connection with the season of festive holidays, questioned the financiers.
Video, photo All from Russia.