Estimated effect on the economy of Russia from Putin’s plan


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Economists estimate the effect of the increase of social expenditures under the plan of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin said during the address to the Federal Assembly. The results of calculations presented in the forecast Sberbank Investment Research compiled by Anton Struchenevsky, Rodion by Lomivorotov and Artem Vinogradov. The forecast is in the possession “of the”.

In 2020-2021 years the increase in spending on support for low-income families prostimulirujte growth in retail sales within 1 percentage point, an increase in payments of the parent capital will support the real estate market. Inflation will increase no more than 0.2 percentage points, to the target of four percent it will begin to close only in 2021.

According to economists Sberbank Investment Research, for the support of poor families in 2020, the government will allocate 125 billion rubles, and in 2021-m — 200-250 billion. The amount of payment netcapital in the current year will increase to 335 billion rubles, and another 350 billion. The remaining funds will be used for other forms of support, such as compensation regions in connection with the reduction of income tax.

Forecast Sberbank Investment Research coincides with a preliminary estimate of the Ministry of Finance and the audit chamber, which had previously estimated spending on Putin’s plan to 400-500 billion rubles in 2020 and 650 billion in 2021-m.

In subsequent years, spending on promotion of demography will continue to grow, analysts expect. In 2022-2023, the amount of additional social costs can almost double, and exceed one trillion rubles. However, the impact on inflation will remain marginal as the increase will be due to the extension of the program netcapital.

Vladimir Putin address to the Federal Assembly on 15 January 2020, has promised to increase maternity capital to pay it for the first child and to extend the program until the end of 2026. In addition, the President instructed to provide a monthly payment for children from 3 to 7 years inclusive from 1 January 2020. In the first stage, families in need will receive half the minimum wage (about 5,5 thousand roubles). If this is not enough, from 2021 payments will increase in two times.

Video, photo All from Russia.


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