Christoph Barakat: TV Finance /| YouTube
Trading war of the USA and Europe, as well as changes in Central Bank policy are the most underrated risk to the global economy. This opinion was expressed by the chief economist at Market Securities Christophe Barro (Christophe Barraud), which Bloomberg called the most accurate analyst in the United States, Europe and China. This writes the Business Insider.
Barrot recalled that the us-China trade confrontation, which lasts about one and a half years, has a strong influence on stock markets. So, in fact, a 20% rise in the S&P 500 index observed from August 2019, was largely due to the progress in the negotiations between Washington and Beijing and the signing of the first phase of trade agreements.
However, according to Barro, the risks of escalation to trade war the US and China in 2020 remain. In addition, there is the possibility of a new trade conflict, in which the main players are Washington and Brussels. “There may be many factors that will radically alter the situation [in the markets]. One of them is the U.S. presidential election (scheduled for November 2020 — approx. “Of the tape.ru”), “—said he. According to Barro, if re-elected American President Donald trump trade relations the United States and Europe is likely to worsen.
Another serious threat to the economy may be a change in policy by the Central banks. In 2019 against the backdrop of slowing world economy they maintained the markets through injections of liquidity through asset purchases or interest rate cuts and the ratios of Bank reserves. This ensures the growth of financial markets. However, if in 2020, the Central banks will reduce support, it may completely change the situation, and stock prices will go down.
Earlier analysts of the Danish Bank Saxo said that in 2020, priority will be not economic growth, and caring about the environment and climate. The organization said that the lack of food, clean air and water becomes an existential problem.
Video, photo All from Russia.