Donald Truephoto: Patrick Semansky / AP
The current President of the United States Donald trump can win in the upcoming elections due to protests and unrest that swept the country after the death of the African-American George Floyd, who died after rough arrest by the police. The triumph of the current President predicted a Bloomberg columnist Neil Ferguson (Niall Ferguson).
According to him, today, many tend to compare 2020 since 1968. So, some experts note that the year in more than a hundred American cities also held numerous protests after the assassination of the leader of the movement for civil rights of blacks Martin Luther king, and the government had difficulties because of the war in Vietnam, comparable with those that are now of pandemic coronavirus. Moreover, in 1968 the world is also faced with a new pandemic of the infection of influenza virus A/H3N2, or Hong Kong flu, which in total died around 1 million people.
Against this backdrop, some conclude that trump, being in a situation similar to that faced in 1968 President Lyndon Johnson also will not be able to count on another term. However, says Ferguson, this assessment is likely incorrect.
According to the author, it is likely that the current turmoil and the growing tension between different sectors of society and ethnic groups will Trump just at hand, because it can distract potential voters from its ineffective measures to combat the spread of coronavirus. The current head of state much better than his opponent, the most likely democratic candidate Joe Biden, understands how to influence the opinion of the electorate with the help of social networks and influencers, which is especially important in the context of the internal conflict in American society.
In addition, says Ferguson, to help can Trump the fact that this year the main struggle for the presidency unfold between the two candidates, and no third candidate will not be able to delay the vote, which calculates the current U.S. leader. In 1968 on the results of the elections was heavily influenced by the participation of the candidate of the American independent party of George Wallace, who managed to collect a record for any third party 13.5 percent of the vote.
In late may, a Professor at the University of stony brook Helmut Norpoth said that trump will win the November elections with a probability of 91 percent. These findings, the expert made by analyzing the results of the primaries using a model which takes into account statistical data and a series of historical facts.
Video, photo All from Russia.