Photo: Tingshu Wang / Reuters
The future of the economy of China was at a crossroads due to conflicting data on the growth of the economy in the second quarter of 2020. About it writes Bloomberg.
As the research company China Beige Book International (CBB International), China’s GDP will decline in may-June, 2020 for the second consecutive quarter, which would mean a technical recession. Key indicators, including profits of industrial companies, capital expenditure and volume of retail sales remained at historically low levels in the second quarter and increased slightly compared to the first. CBB International analysts did not rule out that the fall in GDP will happen to China and by the end of 2020.
However, the pessimistic forecast of the company at odds with the views of most economists, who expect the return of the second world economy to growth in the second quarter and predict a rise for the year. For example, Bloomberg experts have already revised their estimates of China’s GDP in a positive direction. According to them, the figure for the second quarter will grow by 1.5 percent, which will avoid a technical recession. They also expect year-end GDP will increase by 1.8 percent.
On the background of the pandemic coronavirus and slowing business activity in China’s economy have fallen by 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020. In may it became known that Beijing for the first time since 1994, refused to set targets for GDP growth for 2020. The authorities explained this step by the uncertainty due to the pandemic.
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