Photo: Ivan Alvarado / Reuters
Scientists at the University of Pennsylvania revealed the true incidence of coronavirus infection in the United States. According to the findings of scientists, published in the journal Science Translation Medicine, approximately 80 percent of infected persons at the moment are not detected. Officially in the United States was approximately 2.5 million cases of disease..
As the scientists write in the article, the true incidence COVID-19 is seriously underestimated. Most of the tests SARS-CoV-2 was performed using PCR with reverse transcription, when RNA molecules are first Transcriber in the DNA, and then repeatedly copied by special enzymes, and then they are fairly easy to identify. However, these tests are not always available and is characterized by a high level of false-negative results, and are infected may not have symptoms and did not pass diagnostics.
Experts analyzed data on the spread of flu-like respiratory diseases (GRZ) for ten years, and found that in March 2020 in the United States experienced a resurgence in the game above the average seasonal figure. This flash is correlated with the number of cases COVID-19 in different States. According to the Centers for control and disease prevention in the United States, a variety of respiratory viruses at that time had a low prevalence, and this allowed the researchers to assume that the increase in the cases of GRZ occurred due to an epidemic of a novel coronavirus.
The researchers also assessed the most likely number of infected people who did not seek medical help. A study of passengers on a cruise ship Diamond Princess showed that 18 percent infected, the disease is asymptomatic, but the overall share of hidden infections should be much larger than this number, since most of the travelers were elderly people who are not as socially active as young. Another study showed that in the United States, only 40 percent of adults with GRZ from 17 thousand people seek medical care. All together, this corresponds to an average proportion of clinical cases COVID-19, equal to 32 percent.
If in fact only a third of patients with COVID-19 applied for medical assistance, the GRZ burst corresponds to at least an 8.7 million new infections of SARS-CoV-2 for three weeks from 8 to 28 March 2020. However, given the start date of the epidemic in the United States, the number of cases was to double every four days or even faster.
The scientists ‘ conclusions are confirmed by serological studies conducted in the state of new York. According to the results of PCR analysis, only 0.3 percent of the state’s population was infected with the coronavirus, however, according to the authors, this percentage must exceed 8.3 percent. April 23, 2020, was announced the presence of antibodies to the coronavirus in 14 percent of the state’s population as of 29 March, in line with theoretical researchers.
Video, photo All from Russia.